Friday, June 23, 2017

BALAKLAVA – WEDNESDAY, JUNE 21

By Alex Marsh @Ajmarsh87

Rail Position: +5m 800-400 (inc 1050m chute), 2m 400-1900, 4m 1900-1500,True Remainder

Track Conditions: Good 4

Track Comments: One of the best courses in South Australia with a big straight that gives every horse a chance

Race 2, No 2 COOL FONZY
Unlucky not to break through last start when he got out too late in just going down to a horse that looks pretty useful and they had a bit on the rest of the field, smaller field today and the extra 200m should work in his favour. Had excuses against Trogir two starts back who himself narrowly lost to a pretty handy one on Saturday, that form reads very well for this.
Race 6, No. 5 STORM FOX
Maybe a tad underdone in a pretty good 3yo race in town last start (was scratched the Saturday before) but still did a good job with excuses to finish within three lengths of the winner, big drop in class today and should benefit from that run. The form out of her maiden first up win is excellent so she clearly has ability and looks to have much more upside than her opposition today.
Race 7, No 2 POLAR VORTEX
Interesting runner who is having his first run for his new stable that is flying at the moment (Jordan Frew). His form in Victoria was very good in some handy races and had excuses in his last two starts. Won a BM70 there last prep and ran well behind He’s Our Rokki, Tally and Mihany at various stages last year. Might be in need of this run but draws well and gets the experienced Cahill on. Just banking that his class could take him a long way in this race if he’s right and at the double figure odds looks good each way value.
PHILLIP STOKES
The leading stable in SA have been plying their trade outstandingly at Balaklava this season with a 40% winning strike rate. They saddle up three runners today in races 3,5 & 6.
Race 8, No 11 MOTHERVINE
Racing well and the punters have had a very good go early backing her in from $13 to $7.50.

Leg 1 (Race 5): 2,5,6,9,11
Leg 2 (Race 6): 5
Leg 3 (Race 7): 2,3,5,8
Leg 4 (Race 8): 1,2,3,4,11

A $25 flexi bet returns 25% of the dividend

SELECTIONS

Race 1: 1,2,3,4 (Drop in class for the 1 who won a similar race two starts back, expect the 2 to improve here as well. Winner should come from either of them)

Race 2: 2*,1,4,7 (2 unlucky last start and finds his easiest maiden yet. No excuses for him today)

Race 3: 5,2,1,8 (A lot of unknowns here so tread carefully, suggest the 5 is ready to go with the 2 trials, blinkers on and they were in pretty sharp heats. 2 has had excuses thus far and should find this easier)

Race 4: 3,2,1,5 (Hard to get enthused about this, 3 was very good last week and could win off that run but it’s an even race on paper)

Race 5: 2,6,9,11 (Tricky little race, if 2 has come on from last prep he should be thereabouts and I’d be watching the markets very closely with the two David Jolly runners)

Race 6: 5*,8,4,2 (Big drop in class for the 5 who had excuses in a much better race last start. On class she should be winning this)

Race 7: 2,3,5,8 (Clearly the best race of the day, 2 is at a good e/w price first up for his new stable, 8 might be overs too. 3 & 5 both could produce big first up runs)

Race 8: 3,2,4,1 (3 chased home a smart one last week in good time, extra 200m looks ideal and it was an improved run by the 2 as well. 4 looks ready for the mile now and a win here wouldn’t surprise)